Why the protests in Iran failed

Di Vincenzo Santo*

(Da www.geopolitica.ru del 6 gennaio 2018)

Tehran. […] This article was written on the span of 3 days. […] The protests started in Mashhad in a gathering by people who had lost their savings due to the closing & bankruptcy of some financial institutions, known as the “Caspian Affair”. A handful of other similar protests took place in other cities but in a quick turn of events, some groups started slogans & protests about other issues, such as regime change, monarchy, etc. … While this turn of events did alienate many Iranians from joining the protesters but it also inspired other dispersed yet more aggressive & opportunistic interest groups to step in. Seeing opportunity & with the help of social media apps like Telegram, these marginal groups started organizing. This was almost done solely by one single Telegram channel, a foreign based & suspicious “AmadNews”. This channel was taken off network twice after violating Telegram’s non-violence code, openly encouraging people to take up arms, attack police with homemade bombs […]

After the first three days, no protest of considerable size has developed in Tehran. […] Based on the videos & images of protests in Tehran on the fourth day, a maximum of no more than 500 people have rallied in the recent protests in Tehran. I seriously don’t understand why Western regime change hawks are so optimistic & happy. Unlike the 2009 protests, we can’t see a single frame of video which proves a number higher than 500 people.

Videos of larger protests belong to cities outside of the mega-capital of Tehran, […] The recent protests are a peculiar thing. History shows big protests usually happen in Iran when a clear & specific issue lays the basis for a common view of injustice taking place (ex. 2009 protests over perceived election fraud) but this time round, no specific unifying issue/clear objective has been cited. In other words, the recent protests have never brought up anything relevant to be able to muster enough emotion yet, especially because the calls for regime change & things likes Trump’s endorsement alienate Iranians even more.

This is why these recent protests might looks more like an exhaustion of dissent thank anything else … it is important to note that there were at least three different camps in the streets in recent days: Anti-government sentiment: against economy & corruption; Green camp: 2009 election protest nostalgia; pro regime change & monarchy camp (face of the riots, marginal yet much noise). Because of all the different camps, the dynamics are very vague. These protests don’t even have a non-official personality as a leader. The protest directions are sent through Telegram application, a crowd shows up but no manifesto & no clear message is declared. The protests finish in riots & then everyone’s back home … […] But hey do you know what’s pathetic? Instead of giving the bigger picture, many analysts & journalists are busy re sharing dozens of frantic protest videos, provoking an image of mass uprising without true analysis coming out. […] with almost no unifying & clear objective declared for the protests, the declining protest rates show that this movement may be indeed dying out fast. […]

Le proteste in Iran

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